Why Predicting Technology's Impact is So Challenging

Discover why even experts like Paul Krugman and Bill Gates struggled to predict the internet's impact and how businesses can adapt to the rapid advancements in AI.

Why Predicting Technology's Impact is So Challenging
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Jul 31, 2024 09:11 PM
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In 1998 Paul Krugman predicted the internet's effect on the economy would be no greater than the fax machine's.

Technology is very hard to predict. Even if you're extremely smart. Unless they're extremely close to ground truth, we've got to be skeptical about 'experts'.
 
  • Even Bill Gates and Tim Berners-Lee (founder of the internet) were surprised by the internet's paid and vast impact on the world.
  • But if you spoke to the people, the entrepreneurs on the ground, leveraging this new technology daily, seeing its impact, like Jeff Bezos at Amazon, they would have told you with absolute confidence about where the world was heading and how impactful the internet would be.
 
It's easier for companies to tell themselves AI won't be a big deal. It's overhyped. The impact will come in 10 years. It can't do anything complex. These are just excuses for not doing the hard work, thinking from first principles about how your business needs to adapt to a world with AI.
 
And also with the assumption that AI models will be 10x faster, smarter, and cheaper within 12-24 months.
 
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Written by

Alex Rainey
Alex Rainey

Alex is an experienced CTO and founder who largely focuses on all the technical areas of My AskAI, from AI Engineering, Technical Product Management and overall Platform Development.

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